We have been following developments in the economic situation in the United States with great interest lately, mainly because of the recent announcement of higher-than-expected inflation. This news came at a time when markets were regularly setting new highs, and now the first signs of a correction are emerging. It is important to reflect on what impact this may have on our investment portfolios and how we are preparing for it.
The impact of runaway inflation in the US
Unbridled inflation can have a significant impact on investment strategies. Historically, when inflation gets out of control, the Federal Reserve (Fed) responds by raising interest rates. However, high interest rates tend to dampen economic growth and can negatively affect market sentiment. This can lead to a decline in stock prices and an increase in market volatility.
Historical perspective and current situation
Historically, the Fed has responded to financial instability by cutting interest rates. However, there is currently no apparent major "break-up" in the markets, but the situation may change in the coming months. One concern is the state of the commercial real estate (CRE) market, which is currently in its worst shape since 2007, not only in the US but also and especially in Germany. Realistically, the Fed's hands are very much tied right now. The longer high interest rates last, the greater the risk of a recession.
The impact on investment portfolios
Our portfolios and investment strategy are built so that basic portfolio diversification, i.e. spreading out investments, helps mitigate risk. Further, we are slowly but surely preparing our cash so that we have room for better purchase prices. We know we can't time the market, so we have to stay invested even to the nature of our portfolios, but current indications show us that the likelihood of better prices could be a theme.