1. Key events
Several key events took place during the 2024 election campaign that attracted widespread media attention and significantly influenced public opinion. These events reinforced the polarisation of the electorate and contributed to the creation of a different image of each candidate.
- Assassination attempt on Donald Trump: On 14 July 2024, Donald Trump was slightly injured in an assassination attempt during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. The assailant shot Trump in the ear and was shot on the spot by Secret Service agents. The incident immediately attracted a lot of media attention and sparked debates about the safety of political candidates in the US. The event also polarised the public, as Trump supporters saw the incident as confirmation of the vulnerability of his campaign.
- Presidential debate between Trump and Harris: On 10 September 2024, the first and only presidential debate between Trump and Harris took place. The debate focused on foreign policy, the economy, and social issues. The candidates delineated distinctly different positions, with Harris being portrayed by the media as the progressive and inclusive choice, while Trump was presented in a more controversial light. This divergence in media coverage sparked discussions on social media about possible bias and reinforced polarisation among voters.
- Favouritism of Kamala Harris in traditional media: During the campaign, traditional media such as television and print media often presented Kamala Harris as a candidate of hope and change. Trump, on the other hand, was portrayed in the media as a more polarizing and controversial figure. This media approach created a divergent perception of the two candidates among voters and reinforced the perception of a media bias in favour of Harris.
- Concurrent campaign rallies in key states: Towards the end of the campaign, both candidates focused their efforts on key states such as Wisconsin, where they held concurrent rallies. These events were characterized by harsh rhetoric and personal attacks between the candidates, which drew media attention and heightened tensions between supporters of both parties.
- Endorsements from prominent figures: Both candidates received support from influential figures during the campaign. For example, Elon Musk has publicly endorsed Donald Trump, sparking controversy, particularly in the technology and financial sectors. Harris, on the other hand, had the support of cultural and media figures, which brought her considerable attention in the mainstream media and attracted younger voters in particular.
2. Media image
The 2024 campaign was heavily influenced by the media image of both candidates. The media played a crucial role in shaping public perception of the two candidates, which contributed to the different reception of the two candidates among voters.
- Kamala Harris in traditional media: Harris was often portrayed in traditional media, such as major television stations and newspapers, as a positive choice who brings an inclusive and progressive approach to politics. The media emphasised her environmental and social agenda and often portrayed her as a candidate of change and the future. This media image may have reinforced the perception of Harris as a promising candidate among more progressive voters.
- Donald Trump and critical coverage: media coverage of Trump was often critical and focused on his controversial statements and behaviour. The media often portrayed him as a polarizing figure and criticized his protectionist positions and statements. This image may have influenced some of the public and reinforced their dislike of Trump, while his supporters perceived this approach as biased and partisan.
- Social media and digital platforms: Social media has become a key platform for the dissemination of information and misinformation. Strong communities of supporters of both candidates have formed on platforms such as Twitter and Facebook, actively responding to media coverage and sharing their own content. These platforms reinforced opinion bubbles and deepened divisions among voters, with unverified information and speculation often appearing on these platforms.
- Support from celebrities and influencers: Prominent celebrities and influencers had a strong influence on the perception of both candidates. Elon Musk publicly endorsed Trump, which resonated particularly among supporters in the tech sector, while Harris received the support of well-known cultural figures, which attracted the attention of younger voters.
3. Perceptions on social media
Social media played a key role in the spread of information and misinformation in 2024, significantly influencing public opinion and trust in the democratic process. On platforms such as Twitter, Facebook and other digital channels, the election was actively debated, leading to widening differences of opinion among voters and a number of controversial events.
- Concerns about electoral fraud: There was frequent speculation on social media about possible voter fraud, particularly due to the lack of voter identification requirements in some states. These concerns have led to intense discussions about possible abuse of the electoral system and manipulation of results. These views have often been propagated by Trump supporters, who have highlighted the risks associated with voting by mail.
- The Peanut Squirrel Incident: One of the surprising viral topics was the case of a squirrel named Peanut who was allegedly killed by the US government. This bizarre incident became a symbol of distrust in government transparency and sparked debates about the ethics of government practices. Although a marginal issue at first glance, the story gained widespread popularity on social media, where it was often interpreted as a symbol of the public's growing distrust of government transparency and credibility.
- Attack on Donald Trump: The attempted assassination of Trump during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania provoked strong reactions on social media. Users actively shared footage of the incident and speculated about the motives of the attacker. The incident sparked discussions about candidate safety and political violence in general. It further deepened the polarisation among voters, with Trump supporters seeing the attack as evidence that his campaign faces major challenges.
- Videos of 'glitches' on election monitors: After the election, videos began circulating on social media that allegedly showed technical errors on election monitors, which were thought to have resulted in vote-counting errors. These videos, which were intensively shared, fuelled speculation that the integrity of the electoral process had been compromised. Users on social media discussed possible manipulation and technical problems, which increased uncertainty about the regularity of the elections.
- Preferences on Polymarket: Polymarket, a platform that allows betting on the outcome of various events, saw high activity regarding the presidential election. For a period of time, the preferences on this platform were more favorable to Donald Trump than to Kamala Harris, sparking discussions about the reliability of prediction markets and the extent to which these markets can influence public opinion. This development in the Polymarket was seen as an interesting indicator of public sentiment and increased attention towards the informal prediction market as a source of predictions.
Disclaimer:
This article is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other financial products. The authors make no representations as to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information contained in this article. Readers should consult a financial advisor or other professional if they need specific investment advice or if they have questions about their financial decisions. The authors of this article are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by the use of the information in this article. Past years' profits are no guarantee of future profits.
